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History shows Bitcoin price may take 3-12 months to finally break $20K

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Bitcoin (BTC) has had four market cycles since its inception in 2009, from a bottom to a new peak. The cycles ranged from over 600 days to around 1,050 days. The most recent cycle has just surpassed 300 days, which suggests it could last 3-12 more months.

If Bitcoin’s price remains stable for several months to potentially a year, it could achieve two things. First, it could strengthen the fundamental ground of the next explosive rally as seen between 2016 and 2017. Second, it could cause other cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, to reach new heights, as some investors predict.

Why a slow grind upwards for Bitcoin is crucial in this phase

The price of Bitcoin was at a mere $3,596 on BitMEX on March 13. Within six months, BTC has recorded a 220% upsurge, outperforming most traditional assets and indices including gold.

The weekly price chart of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView.com

The steep vertical rally of Bitcoin could raise the chances of whales — or large individual Bitcoin holders — to take profit. When that happens, the overleveraged nature of the futures market may result in a deep pullback due to cascading liquidations.

But if BTC gradually recovers over time and remains above the $10,000 support level, it could lead to a more sustainable and long-lasting bull cycle. 10% Holdings co-founder Dan Tepiero said:

“Prepare to be patient in Bitcoin. Each up cycle takes longer to play out and is less extreme as absolute dollar value gets much larger. May or may not be another 6-12 months before price breaks up. Should not matter as end price point obscenely higher. Hodlers rejoice.”

As an example, the past two cycles occurred around the Bitcoin block reward halving. The second halving in Bitcoin’s history happened in July 2016. The bull cycle of BTC reached its peak 17 months later in December 2017. 

Previous market cycles of Bitcoin

Previous market cycles of Bitcoin. Source: Dan Tepiero, Coin Metrics

If Bitcoin follows a similar trend as the post-2016 halving cycle, it could see a strong uptrend in late 2021. This would also line up perfectly with the popular stock-to-flow model that suggests BTC price may reach six figures sometime next year. 

What do traders see in the near term?

In the short term, some traders foresee the price of Bitcoin consolidating for an extended period. A pseudonymous trader known as “BIg Chronis” said higher time frame charts suggest a longer sideways price action.

“Holding the daily bull cross is ideal for the bulls, sideways price action can bring these into parallel without crossing, while allowing higher time frame indicators to ebb their decline… ie- I expect relative sideways ranging for a while longer.”

Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, similarly said the cycle will likely last longer than the previous one. He said:

“The fun part is that this cycle will, probably, take longer than the previous one. However, it will be more insane than the previous one. I like it.”

Typically, a prolonged period of stability for Bitcoin has led the altcoin market to perform strongly. Kelvin Koh, a partner at Asia-based cryptocurrency fund Spartan Black, hinted it could buoy the sentiment around the altcoin market.





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Bitcoin

Ethereum eyes 3-week winning streak vs. Bitcoin as BTC price drifts below $39K

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Bitcoin (BTC) headed lower on Aug. 5 after an attempt to reclaim $40,000 failed to garner buyer support.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Accumulation recalls October 2020

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to local lows of $38,700 on Bitstamp, down around 1.5% in several hours.

The largest cryptocurrency had benefited considerably from remarks by Gary Gensler, the new Chair of United States regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tuesday, but momentum stalled at the psychologically significant $40,000 mark.

Thursday’s dip took away the prospect of flipping the 21-week exponential moving average, (EMA), one of several eyed by analysts this week, as firm new support.

Meanwhile, on-chain indicators once again contrasted with middling BTC price action. In particular, Thursday revealed the extent of long-term holder (LTH) Bitcoin accumulation, this reaching new all-time highs: more of the BTC supply was now in the hands of LTHs than ever before.

“Previous bull markets were triggered when LTH supply reached between 63.6% and 71.5% although often after many months at these levels,” Glassnode, which produced the data, added in comments.

“LTHs currently hold 66% of the $BTC supply.”

Proportional long- and short-term holder supply chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

Traders bullish on Ethereum after hard fork

On altcoins, Ether (ETH) dominated the conversation amid bullish forecasts for fresh price gains.

Related: Altcoins and DeFi tokens push higher as Bitcoin price falters at $40K

Ethereum’s token could reach new local highs in the coming months after its latest successful hard fork, analysts forecast as strength against Bitcoin continued.

ETH/BTC hit 0.0693 on Aug. 4, the date of the hard fork deployment — its highest in nearly two months. 

A local resistance point, the 0.07 BTC level has yet to reappear since the Bitcoin-inspired market drawdown began in May.

Nonetheless, among altcoins, ETH has exhibited notable strength against Bitcoin, and its hard fork, London, referred to as EIP-1559, should catalyze performance further.

For the short term, however, a chance to consolidate recent gains is on the cards, say traders.

“I’m expecting a short-term top to be happening tomorrow on ETH,” Cointelegraph contributor Michael van de Poppe told Twitter followers Wednesday. 

“Healthy correction after EIP-1559 before the heaviest bull run of them all happens.”

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView