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Bitcoin price at risk of CME gap-fill unless $10.5K flips to support



Since dropping 17.5% to a monthly low at $9,817 last week, Bitcoin (BTC) price has bounced around in what appears to be a tightening range between $9,800-$10,600. 

The digital asset has yet to establish a clear pattern of daily higher lows and lower highs but as mentioned by Cointelegraph contributor Rakesh Upadhyay: 

“The long tail on the candlesticks of the past five days shows that the bulls have been buying at lower levels but they have not been able to push the price above the top of the range at $10,625, which suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.”  

Despite Bitcoin price finding soft support around $10,100, the price has been unable to hold above $10,500 and a number of analysts remain cautious as the CME gap at $9,900-$9,650 remains a threat. 

Earlier in the day, on-chain analyst Willy Woo shared an opposing point of view, suggesting that the CME gap will not be filled this time. 

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Woo tweeted the above chart and said

“I’d say there’s a fair chance this CME gap may not get filled, so far it’s been front-run for liquidity. Every dip snapped up. If so it’ll be the first CME gap on daily candles that remains unfilled.”

While the accuracy of the CME gap being used as a technical analysis indicator often comes under some scrutiny Bitcoin’s inability to flip the $10,500 level to support does raise concern. 

BTC/USDT daily chart

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Looking back to May through late-June we can see that $9,900 functioned as a stiff level of resistance and the recent correction back to this zone has tested the level as support, which so far is holding. 

The volume profile visible range (VPVR) indicator also shows buying interest kicking in right at $9,962, which is aligned with the long lower wicks on the previous daily candles where buyers bought into dips below $10K. 

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The daily and 4-hour timeframe shows the RSI bouncing from oversold territory and pushing into the 50s but the declining purchasing volume on the 4-hour chart shows there’s still plenty of work to be done. 

An encouraging first step would be to see a 4-hour or daily candle close above $10,500 alongside a sustained increase in buy volume. 

There’s also a VPVR gap from $10,500 – $11,300 so things could heat up quickly if bulls manage to catalyze a high volume surge through $10,500. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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3 things traders are saying about Bitcoin and the state of the bull market




Bitcoin’s (BTC) dip below $29,000 on June 22 rocked the markets a handful of analysts to call for a potential drop below $20,000. 

Many traders on crypto Twitter were focused on the formation of a death cross on the Bitcoin chart as an omen for another potential drop in the price but analysts with a more contrarian point of view look at this chart pattern as a signal that it is time to buy the dip. 

Three reasons why some traders still see a bull case for Bitcoin include the appearance of the “spring” stage of the Wyckoff accumulation model, steady buying by long-term holders and the formation of a bear trap at the golden ratio that is similar to moves seen during previous bull runs.

The Wyckoff model says spring has arrived

The Wyckoff accumulation model has been all the rage amongst cryptocurrency analysts over the past month as the price action for Bitcoin has been tracking the pattern relatively closely since the May 19 sell-off.

As seen in the tweet above, Bitcoin’s plunge below $29,000 and the subsequent recovery above $32,000 has some analysts suggesting that the “spring test” seen in phase C of the Wyckoff pattern has been fulfilled. This would indicate that the bottom is in for the current correction and now begins the choppy climb higher.

If this turns out to be true, BTC would enter phase D, also known as the “markup phase” where a new uptrend is established and “pullbacks to new support offer buying opportunities” that are often seen as opportunities to buy the dip.

Related: Bitcoin drops below $36K as century-old financial model predicts big BTC crash

In phase D a breakout to new highs is expected as the cycle completes and prepares to potentially begin again once the move higher is exhausted.

Long term holders are still bullish

Another bullish sign cited by analysts is the steady accumulation by long-term holders.

The Bitcoin long-term net holder position shows that investors actually began to reaccumulate back in late April and they began to significantly increase their activity in May as the price fell into the $30,000 to $40,000. On-chain data shows that these investors have continued to buy into the most recent dip.

This activity suggests that more experienced crypto traders are familiar with Bitcoin’s market cycles and view the current range as a good level to open long positions when fear is high and the sentiment is low. 

The biggest rewards go to those who take the risk to buy an asset amid plunging prices and sentiment, and these are the types of situations where the contrarian traders thriv.

A bear trap lurks at the golden ratio

The third scenario some analysts are focusing on suggests that the current price movements have set up a bear trap that echoes a move seen during the last cycle which involves a pullback to the 1.618 golden ratio extension level which will then be followed by a breakout to new highs.

From this perspective, the market is currently in the awareness phase of the four psychological stages of asset bubbles. After the bear trap occurs, Bitcoin will enter the mania phase where widespread media coverage attracts the attention of new market participants who then chase the price to ever-increasing heights “based on the delusion that the asset will keep going up, forever.”

Previous calls for the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a price of $200,000 by the third or fourth quarter of 2021 by veteran trader Peter Brandt, who was far from alone in predicting its value to surpass the $100,000 mark this year, would suggest that the long-expected blow-off top is yet to come.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.