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Will the CME Bitcoin futures gap buyers at $9,600 be left in tears?



The recent week has been relatively dull on the price movements of Bitcoin (BTC), as a slow upward trend was established after Bitcoin’s price found a footing at above $10,000. This rally then continued toward $11,000 on Sep. 18 but was pushed back by some short-term resistance levels. 

The previous week has been focused solely around Uniswap (UNI) and the airdrop of its token, combined with several listings on high-end exchanges. At the same time, let’s take a look at the price of Bitcoin and its charts to gauge where the cryptocurrency market may be headed in the upcoming week. 

Bitcoin is facing a crucial resistance between $11,200-11,400 

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The daily chart of Bitcoin shows the slow upwards grind, which is currently facing a crucial resistance. 

The $11,200-11,400 area has been acting as support for a substantial period before the big crash to $10,000 occurred. If this area between $11,200-11,400 can be broken, a retest of higher levels is back on the table. 

However, as the chart also shows, the level to test around $9,600 (which is also the CME gap) wasn’t fully filled. The level got front-run by traders, and the price of Bitcoin bounced back above the $10,000 level. 

A range can now be constructed with these two regions. On the downside, the $10,000 area is a significant support zone with the potential of $9,600 being hit. On the upside, the $11,200-11,400 area is a crucial resistance area to break. 

Can the weekend see the $11,200 test?

BTC/USDT 2-hour chart

BTC/USDT 2-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 2-hour chart shows a clear picture of the current uptrend. Every previous resistance level flips for support to continue this climb higher.

The crucial hurdle to take is shown in the big red box is found between $11,200-11,400. If that resistance level breaks through, retests of $12,000 are back in play. 

However, if the price of Bitcoin loses the $10,750 area, further downside becomes increasingly likely with the range lows around $10,000 as potential support levels.

The total market cap of crypto is in another accumulation range 

Total market capitalization crypto 1-week chart

Total market capitalization crypto 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

If you want to start analyzing charts, the higher timeframe ones are the best ones to start with. In this case, the total market capitalization of crypto presents some clear levels to watch.

As long as the market sustains above $250-255 billion, the market can be considered to be in a general uptrend. A fresh new higher high was printed and the market is currently seeking a new higher low.

Breaking through $400 billion may ignite some fireworks and push the value up to $500 and possibly $700 billion. 

The possible scenario for BTC/USD 

BTC/USDT 2-hour chart

BTC/USDT 2-hour chart. Source: TradingView

It’s unlikely to expect a clear breakout of the $11,200-11,400 resistance area in one-go. I’m assuming we’ll see further range-bound movements after a rejection at the $11,200 area. 

Key levels to watch include sustaining support at $10,750 and to resume the rally toward the resistance zone where a rejection will be the first thing to watch. 

If a rejection occurs, a bearish retest and confirmation of resistance of $11,000 will warrant further downward momentum, as the chart shows.

BTC/USD 2-hour chart

BTC/USD 2-hour chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, a bearish retest of the $11,000 level will likely tile momentum to the downside and increase the retest of $10,600 and $10,200.

For the bulls, establishing new yearly price highs highly dependent on breaking the multi-year resistance level at $12K to continue the general uptrend for the rest of the year. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Institutions have no appetite for Bitcoin at this price level: JPMorgan




As Bitcoin (BTC) price failed to hold its breath above the $35,000 yesterday, JPMorgan expects an overall bearish movement below the critical price level based on the BTC-to-gold volatility ratio. 

In a note sent to investors on Wednesday, JPMorgan detailed its reasoning to see the fair value of Bitcoin between $23,000–$35,000 over the medium term. The banking giant previously pictured a $140,000 roadmap if the biggest cryptocurrency matches gold’s allocation and volatility profile.

But that’s off the table for the foreseeable future, according to JPMorgan’s note, which predicts that “full convergence or equalization of volatilities or allocations [between gold and bitcoin] is unlikely in the foreseeable future.“

JPMorgan also said that China’s crackdown on mining operations would have a positive impact on Bitcoin over the medium term, “as it accelerates a shift away from China’s high share in bitcoin’s hash rate, reducing concentration.”

Not many institutions are joining MicroStrategy’s hunt to buy the dip. “More than a month after the May 19 crypto crash, bitcoin funds continue to bleed, even as inflows into physical gold ETFs stopped,” JPMorgan said, adding:

“This suggests that institutional investors, who tend to invest via regulated vehicles such as publicly listed bitcoin funds or CME bitcoin futures, still exhibit little appetite to buy the bitcoin dip.”

Related: Bitcoin price dips below $34K as day of Grayscale’s BTC unlocking draws near

According to JPMorgan, another major factor preventing a possible bull run is the end of a six-month lock-up period for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund, which saw a nearly $4 billion inflow in December and January. As Cointelegraph reported, July 19 will see the most significant single unlocking day, with 16,000 BTC worth around $627 million released.

Following the April all-time high, Bitcoin is hovering between $30,000–$40,000 for the last couple of weeks. After diving below $29,000 on June 22, BTC price is moving around $34,000, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data.