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Bitcoin 200-week moving average hints price will never go below $6.7K

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Bitcoin (BTC) speculators waiting for a BTC price drop of even 35% will probably be waiting forever, new data shows.

In a tweet on Sep. 22, quant analyst PlanB noted that Bitcoin will break the habit of a lifetime if it goes lower than $6,700.

PlanB tracks historical BTC price floor

PlanB was referencing the 200-week moving average (200MA) for BTC/USD. A popular tool in his work, the 200MA has never been broken during Bitcoin price downtrends.

As of Tuesday, the level equated to $6,700 and continues to rise by around $200 every month.

As long as historic behavior continues as it has done since Bitcoin’s 200th week of existence, $6,700 will now form a definitive price floor.

“BTC 200WMA never goes down. BTC monthly close has never been below 200WMA,” PlanB confirmed earlier in September when the figure stood at $6,600.

He added that in March 2017, Bitcoin saw a “struggle” to clear the significant $1,000 mark for good. After succeeding, however, all-time highs of $20,000 arrived by the end of the year.

This month, meanwhile, Cointelegraph noted that significant buy support from whales lays far higher, at $8,800.

Bitcoin price vs. 200-week moving average historical chart. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

93% bullish on Bitcoin price in 2020

As Cointelegraph also reported, PlanB recently called for BTC/USD to begin climbing towards $100,000 as part of his research. His stock-to-flow family of Bitcoin price forecasting models has made highly bullish predictions about the current four-year halving cycle, which ends in 2024. 

Bitcoin should be in line to trade at an average $288,000 by that point — an “order of magnitude” more than at present, but so far, stock-to-flow has charted BTC price rises with complete accuracy and its methodology is yet to be disproven.

Meanwhile, a survey about the future of Bitcoin price action published following the 200MA update has attracted 14,000 responses. 

PlanB’s Bitcoin price Twitter survey as of Sep. 23

PlanB’s Bitcoin price Twitter survey as of Sep. 23. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

The majority — 59.1% at press time — is bullish about Bitcoin over the next year, and also favors BTC over other cryptocurrencies. In total, 92.8% of respondents are bullish when it comes to BTC/USD.





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Bitcoin

Bitcoin price bounces to $33K but analysts say ‘it’s too early’ to call a bottom

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Cryptocurrency investors found little reprieve on June 22 as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $30,000 for the first time since January, sparking panic among less experienced market participants who have yet to experience a full market cycle. 

While Bitcoin has been under increasing pressure from multiple sources since early May, the most recent bout of selling has been largely attributed to capitulation by China-based miners who have been forced to abruptly shut down their operations.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after dropping to $28,800, Bitcoin price bounced back above the $30,000 level and currently trades for $32,600.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The strong bounce came after comments from Brian Nelson, the current nominee for Under Secretary of the Department of the Treasury’s division on terrorism and financial crimes. Nelson said he was going to make the implementation of new regulations around cryptocurrency a priority if he is confirmed.

Miner crackdown in China sparks market turmoil

The pressures put on Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market was highlighted by Élie Le Rest, partner at digital asset management firm ExoAlpha. Le Rest told Cointelegraph that “Chinese market participants have been massively selling during the past month.”

Le Rest also pointed to the “Grayscale unlocking schedule leading to more selling pressure,” resulting in some panic selling by the less experienced traders in the market.

Le Rest said,

“With newcomers in the crypto market seeing their profit and capital getting wipe out by selling waves, newcomers are taking their loss as they can’t stomach this much negative volatility anymore.”

Due to these pressures, Le Rest believes that the market could range in the “lower tranches of $25,000 to $35,000” in July, with the low volume usually seen in August having the potential to “accelerate this downside trend or build the upside trend.”

The upside case for today’s move was provided by David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer of ExoAlpha, who stated that the activity seen in the market on June 22 “seems to have drawn the line in the sand for BTC at $29,000 and Ether (ETH) at $1,700, given the swift bounce.”

Related: Bad call? Bitfinex bears closed a block of Bitcoin shorts before the drop below $32K

That being said, Lifchitz warns against throwing caution to the wind as the volatile nature of the crypto market makes picking a bottom notoriously challenging.

Lifchitz said:

“However, it’s too early to tell if this is “the” bottom or just a temporary floor before more downside. The lack of any upside catalyst (besides some contrarian oversold metrics) remains the biggest hurdle for cryptos to bounce back… Paging Mr.Musk, paging Mr.Musk.”

Altcoins see double-digit losses

The altcoin market followed Bitcoin’s lead on June 22 with a majority of tokens seeing double-digit losses as traders ran for the safety of stablecoins.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The price of Ether managed to rebound along with the price of BTC, helping erase a 15% correction and send the price back above $1,900.

Two tokens that managed to rise above the market turmoil and see positive gains for the day were Livepeer (LPT), which posted a 15% gain and Celo (CELO), which saw its price increase by 9%.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.303 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 47.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.