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Bitcoin’s Macro Structure Indicates Push to $12,600 Could be Imminent

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  • Bitcoin and the entire crypto market has faced some heightened selling pressure throughout the past day, with bears moving to regain control of BTC
  • This has sent shockwaves throughout the entire crypto market, causing many tokens to plunge lower
  • Analysts are now widely noting that the entire market could be well-positioned to see further losses in the near-term.
  • One trader is noting that BTC reeling towards an “accumulation range” within the $9,000 region is a possibility
  • That being said, the same trader also believes that a push up towards $12,600 could still be imminent in the near-term.

Bitcoin is facing some heightened selling pressure as its price sits within the $10,600 range. This is around where it has been trading throughout the past few days, with buyers and sellers being unable to gain any control over its near-term outlook.

Yesterday, bulls attempted to take control of its near-term trend when they pushed it up to highs of $10,800. This is around where its price began stalling, and where it ultimately faced a rejection that sent it down to lows of $10,600.

While sharing his thoughts on where Bitcoin may trend in the near-term, one analyst explained that although he is anticipating some short-term turbulence, he still expects it to rally higher in the mid-term.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Weakness as Consolidation Phase Persists

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just under 1% at its current price of $10,650. This is around where it has been trading throughout the past few days.

Yesterday, however, the crypto did face a grim rejection at $10,800 that struck a serious blow to its near-term outlook.

Its current trading range exists between $10,500 and $10,800. Which of these levels is firmly broken above or below first should provide investors with significant insights into its near-term outlook.

Trader: BTC’s Market Structure Suggests It Is Poised to Move Towards $12,600 

While sharing his thoughts on where Bitcoin may trend in the near-term, one analyst explained that he still believes a mid-term movement to $12,600 is imminent.

He does note that it may first enter an “accumulation range” within the $9,000 region.

“BTC Monthly Outlook: Depending on monthly close, either we see some type of accumulation in the 9000’s range before we end up eventually break above $12,500 and flip that key level… Anyways, $12,600 gets broken at some point in the next 6 months and I think we see new ATH’s.”

Image Courtesy of Cactus. Chart via TradingView.

Although the benchmark cryptocurrency may be in for some short-term turbulence, its mid-term outlook remains incredibly bright.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.





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Bitcoin

Bad call? Bitfinex bears closed a block of Bitcoin shorts before the drop below $32K

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Bitcoin price is still in a rut, trading near $33,000 and trapped in a downtrend that just seems to get worse with the passing of each day. As the price slumps, analysts have consulted with several technical and on-chain metrics to explain the price collapse, but none of these have picked up on the exact reason. 

One area of interest has been the sharp rise in short positions at Bitfinex in the past week. Traders are placing exaggerated importance on these Bitcoin (BTC) margin shorts as if they are predictors of the current market crash. Still, as Cointelegraph previously reported, analysts forget that Bitcoin margin longs are usually much larger.

On June 18, longs outnumbered Bitfinex shorts by at least 22,800 BTC, but 87% of the short positions were closed before June 22. Currently, margin longs are 43,850 BTC higher than the amount shorted.

While those shorts are usually savvy traders, it is unlikely that they knew in advance that Chinese banks would prevent their clients from engaging in activities involving crypto trading or mining.

More importantly, these bearish positions were built while MicroStrategy was buying $500 million in Bitcoin after a successful senior secured note private offer. To make things worse, Michael Saylor’s business intelligence firm announced the intention to raise another $1 billion by selling stocks to buy Bitcoin.

Let’s take a look at how these courageous shorts fared.

Bitfinex margin shorts (blue) vs. Bitcoin price in USD (orange). Source: TradingView

On June 6, shorts increased from 1,380 to 6,700 at an average price of $36,150. Three days later, another 12,180 shorts were added when Bitcoin was trading at $37,050. Lastly, between June 14 and 15, shorts increased 6,000 to a 25,000 peak while Bitcoin averaged $40,100.

By looking at the Bitcoin prices when those short position increases took place, it is reasonable to assume that the 23,500 contract increase (green circles) had an average price of $37,625.

Related: Traders search for bearish signals after Bitcoin futures enter backwardation

Traders closed positions before BTC crashed bel$32,000

These short positions were steadily closed over the past three days when Bitcoin was already trading below $37,000. However, 17,000 short contracts had already been closed by the time the price plunged below $33,500. Therefore, it is implausible that the average price was below $34,500.

No one would complain about gaining 8%, shorting the market to generate a $73 million profit. However, it is essential to note that on June 16, when Bitcoin reached $40,400, these shorts were underwater by $65 million.

This analysis shows how even highly professional traders can go deep underwater. There’s no way to know if this trade would have been profitable had the crackdown on China not aggravated Bitcoin price or if MicroStrategy managed to raise the $1 billion before the price drop.

If anyone still believes in market manipulation, at least there’s comfort in knowing that pro traders can face drastic losses as well. However, unlike us mortals, whales have deep pockets and patience to withhold even the most rigorous thunderstorms.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.