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Bitcoin pioneer predicts $1T BTC market cap by 2022 or ‘sooner’

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Bitcoin (BTC) hitting a $1 trillion market cap by 2025 is “conservative” and those levels should hit in less than two years.

That was according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back, who delivered a fresh bullish BTC price outlook on Oct. 5.

Back was responding to a report by Yassine Elmandjra, a crypto-asset analyst at investment advisor ARK, who in September forecast a Bitcoin market cap of $1–5 trillion by 2030 at the latest.

ARK is well known for its enthusiastic price forecasts for Tesla stock, which saw an almost unbelievable rise in 2020.

“Conservative. I’d say #bitcoin likely sees $1 trillion market cap within 2 years, probably sooner. $1 trillion is about BTC $50k,” he said.

As of October 2020, Bitcoin’s market cap is just over $198 billion. For Back’s prognosis to come true, the market would need to see a 400% increase by 2022.

For reference, at the start of October two years ago in 2018, the figure stood at $114 billion. BTC/USD traded at $6,600, two months before the pit of its bear market which bottomed out at $3,100.

Bitcoin market cap historical chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Analysts betting on a breakout

Further responses to ARK included on-chain data resource ecoinometrics, which highlighted a $2 trillion Bitcoin market cap as equal to that of Apple.

BTC/USD would trade at $100,000 under such circumstances, while to equal gold, the pair would need to reach $500,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin price activity is currently much more subdued, with analysts expecting more sideways action to characterize the remainder of the year. 

At the same time, anticipation is building over BTC/USD abandoning its correlation to traditional macro assets and rising in line with historical behavior — specifically centered on predictions from the stock-to-flow price forecasting models. 

Stock-to-flow calls for an average price of $288,000 during the current halving cycle, which began in May and will last until 2024.





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El Salvador to airdrop $30 in Bitcoin to every adult citizen

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The president of El Salvador  has announced the government will airdrop $30 worth of Bitcon (BTC) to every adult citizen of the country.

The announcement was welcomed by Bitcoiners, with influencers speculating El Salvador’s government wil need to purchase the required BTC it intends to distribute adding more than $100 million in buying pressure on markets.

Quickly googled estimates of the adult population of El Salvador varied, with onchain analyst Willy Woo tweeting that Bitcoin’s global user base will grow by 2.5% thanks to the influx of 4.5 million Salvadorians.

Others placed the Salvadoran adult population as high as 6.5 million (which is actually the total population), with Yahoo Finance anchor Zack Guzman using the figure for some rough back of the envelope calculations suggesting that $195 million worth of Bitcoin will be airdropped across the country.

Exact figures are hard to find but Statista shows that in 2019 the population aged 15 and above was 4.72M.

However, crypto Twitter’s euphoria may be be slightly premature, as local publication Prensa Latina notes El Salvador’s citizens will only receive the free Bitcoin after downloading the government-issued cryptocurrency wallet application.

The news was announced during a June 25 press conference, with President Bukele stating the government’s “wallet app will even work anywhere with a cell connection, and you won’t have to have a cell plan for the app.”

President Bukele also stated that the country’s much-celebrated Bitcoin law recognizing BTC as legal currency nationwide will come into effect on September 7.

Related: Opposition poses constitutional challenge to El Salvador’s Bitcoin law

El Salvador’s Bitcoin law was passed roughly two weeks ago. While the move has been praised by the global crypto community, the legislation has faced opposition from a minority political party and the World Bank.