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$12K Bitcoin price back on the table after BTC rallies above $11.4K

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On Friday Bitcoin (BTC) price finally managed to break above the symmetrical triangle where the price had been compressing for the last 30 days. After holding the $11,000 level into the daily close, the price rallied to $11,448 on multiple high volume surges. 

Cryptocurrency daily market performance snapshot. Source: Coin360

On Oct. 8 Cointelegraph contributor Micheal van de Poppe explained that in his view:

“If the price of Bitcoin breaks through the $11,100-$11,300 resistance zone, further bullishness can be expected towards $12,000. This makes the $11,100-$11,300 area is a critical zone for continuation.”

Currently the price is holding above $11,400 and meeting resistance at $11,489 which is right at the top of the Sept. 3 candle which saw BTC drop 13% to $9,960. This level aligns with the VPVR node extending from $11,400-$11,740, but if the bulls are able to push through this resistance cluster another run at the $12K mark is on the cards. 

BTC/USDT daily chart

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

On the daily timeframe, the relative strength index has risen to 65, a bullish signal, and the MACD histogram clearly reflects the current bump in momentum. 

As is always the case, day traders should keep a close eye on volume as the lack of it during the last 30-days is the primary reason for Bitcoin price being flat and pinned below $11,000. 

Bitcoin price daily performance

Bitcoin price daily performance. Source: Coin360

Ether (ETH) price also took a bullish turn, by piercing a key descending trendline to rally 3.08% to $378. 

Ether/USDT daily chart

Ether/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

At the time of writing the top altcoin is encountering resistance at $375 where there is a high volume VPVR node extending from $376-$389. If bulls are able to maintain the current momentum and push through this resistance zone, Ether price could run to $419.

As BTC and Ether rallied, the majority of altcoins followed suit with double-digit gains. Cardano (ADA) gained 10.19%, Chainlink (LINK) added 11.4% and Aave (LEND) rallied by 15%. 

According to CoinMarketCap, the overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $361.5 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance index is currently at 58.4%.

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Bitcoin

Bad call? Bitfinex bears closed a block of Bitcoin shorts before the drop below $32K

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Bitcoin price is still in a rut, trading near $33,000 and trapped in a downtrend that just seems to get worse with the passing of each day. As the price slumps, analysts have consulted with several technical and on-chain metrics to explain the price collapse, but none of these have picked up on the exact reason. 

One area of interest has been the sharp rise in short positions at Bitfinex in the past week. Traders are placing exaggerated importance on these Bitcoin (BTC) margin shorts as if they are predictors of the current market crash. Still, as Cointelegraph previously reported, analysts forget that Bitcoin margin longs are usually much larger.

On June 18, longs outnumbered Bitfinex shorts by at least 22,800 BTC, but 87% of the short positions were closed before June 22. Currently, margin longs are 43,850 BTC higher than the amount shorted.

While those shorts are usually savvy traders, it is unlikely that they knew in advance that Chinese banks would prevent their clients from engaging in activities involving crypto trading or mining.

More importantly, these bearish positions were built while MicroStrategy was buying $500 million in Bitcoin after a successful senior secured note private offer. To make things worse, Michael Saylor’s business intelligence firm announced the intention to raise another $1 billion by selling stocks to buy Bitcoin.

Let’s take a look at how these courageous shorts fared.

Bitfinex margin shorts (blue) vs. Bitcoin price in USD (orange). Source: TradingView

On June 6, shorts increased from 1,380 to 6,700 at an average price of $36,150. Three days later, another 12,180 shorts were added when Bitcoin was trading at $37,050. Lastly, between June 14 and 15, shorts increased 6,000 to a 25,000 peak while Bitcoin averaged $40,100.

By looking at the Bitcoin prices when those short position increases took place, it is reasonable to assume that the 23,500 contract increase (green circles) had an average price of $37,625.

Related: Traders search for bearish signals after Bitcoin futures enter backwardation

Traders closed positions before BTC crashed bel$32,000

These short positions were steadily closed over the past three days when Bitcoin was already trading below $37,000. However, 17,000 short contracts had already been closed by the time the price plunged below $33,500. Therefore, it is implausible that the average price was below $34,500.

No one would complain about gaining 8%, shorting the market to generate a $73 million profit. However, it is essential to note that on June 16, when Bitcoin reached $40,400, these shorts were underwater by $65 million.

This analysis shows how even highly professional traders can go deep underwater. There’s no way to know if this trade would have been profitable had the crackdown on China not aggravated Bitcoin price or if MicroStrategy managed to raise the $1 billion before the price drop.

If anyone still believes in market manipulation, at least there’s comfort in knowing that pro traders can face drastic losses as well. However, unlike us mortals, whales have deep pockets and patience to withhold even the most rigorous thunderstorms.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.