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3 years after the ICO, Filecoin (FIL) rallies 118% upon listing

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On Thursday Filecoin (FIL) began trading across major exchanges over three years after its initial coin offering. 

Upon listing, the token traded at wildly different prices across multiple exchanges and while the premium shows there is still an appetite for altcoins, investors interpreting the rallies from FIL and Polkadot (DOT) as the beginning of an altseason may be disappointed. 

Hours after trading began, top cryptocurrency exchanges including FTX, Binance, and Gemini announced that they would swiftly list the altcoin. Consequently, the token saw significantly different prices across platforms due to a combination of limited liquidity and supply.

The 15-minute chart of Filecoin (FIL) after the FTX listing. Source: TradingView.com

Hours after the FTX integration, the FIL futures contract processed $150 million in trading volume. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried said:

“$FIL has traded about $150m so far. Roughly 60% of the volume has been on FTX! Started around $30, went up to $80 on FTX and $200 on other exchanges, now around $40-$80 on various exchanges.”

Traders expect a boring fourth quarter

Historically, the fourth quarter has been relatively slow for the entire crypto market and in 2018 and 2019 BTC saw losses against the U.S. dollar during Q4.

Based on historical trends and what appears to be the end of an explosive multi-month rally, traders expect a drawn out consolidation phase as the next step for the crypto market. 

Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, suggested that an altseason in early 2021 is most likely. He wrote:

“I do believe we’ll be seeing a relatively boring and corrective quarter on the cryptomarkets. In history; $ETH frequently bottoms out in December, to start running the quarter after. $BTC dominance to run up, to have an altseason in Q1 2021. Continuing the patience.”

Bitcoin dominance is rising

According to the data from CoinMarketCap, the Bitcoin’s dominance against the rest of the cryptocurrency market has been climbing.

Since Sept. 21, the Bitcoin dominance index increased from 58.28% to 58.6%. Although this is not a major increase, it shows a clear recovery from an extended downturn throughout the past year.

The Bitcoin dominance index

The Bitcoin dominance index. Source: CoinMarketCap.com

The dominance index is typically an accurate measurement to assess the trend of the altcoin market and many traders believe that a decline in Bitcoin dominance if followed by increasing bullish momentum in the altcoin market. 

DeFi tokens are still struggling to rebound

In early October, researchers at Santiment said the key to evaluating the prospect of an altseason is the volume of decentralized exchanges. They said:

“Are we anywhere close to #altseason yet? The key may very well be in #DEX trading volumes. Taking a look at #Uniswap’s trading volume, this trendline breaking may very well be the leading indicator to foreshadow the next #alt boom.”

Uniswap daily volume since July

Uniswap daily volume since July. Source: Uniswap

As shown above, Uniswap volume has been in a steady decline. At the same time, altcoins remain flat and the altcoin total market cap index shows a similar decrease in volume.





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China retains mining control? Alipay’s ancient NFTs and Amber’s big raise

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This weekly roundup of news from Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong attempts to curate the industry’s most important news, including influential projects, changes in the regulatory landscape, and enterprise blockchain integrations.

So low you’ve got to reach up to touch the bottom

This week in China felt like one giant mining-farm sized pile of FUD. This is usually a pretty good indication that a bottom is close to being in, but one can never be too sure when it comes to downwards volatility in cryptocurrency. Canaan, one of the largest mining companies in China, announced it was setting up shop in neighboring Kazakhstan. This is an ideal compromise for Canaan as it can remain close to China, while mitigating their regulatory risk. Reading between the lines, it seems like the plan is to mostly continue administration of the company from China while sending the machines overseas.

This would put a wrench in the works of the Bitcoin purists who believe that the crackdowns are a good way to break up China’s dominance in the mining industry. Just this week, a professor at a university in Singapore wrote in Chinese that the shift to a more decentralized network would be a good thing. This raised some eyebrows for the use of a made up word that translates roughly to ‘de-China-ization’, but the article holds even less weight when large mining companies like Canaan are able to shift physical equipment overseas but still remain in control of the governance.

Too big for postage stamps

On June 21, CNBC’s Beijing Bureau Chief Eunice Yoon posted on Twitter that a logistics company in Guangzhou was shipping 3,000 kilograms worth of mining hardware to Maryland, US. According to her claim, the price was $9.37 per kilogram. Some quick math reveals that the total cost would be less than the price of one Bitcoin, at least at the time of writing.

Bitmain lends a helping hand

Cointelegraph reported on June 23 that massive mining company Bitmain was suspending sales of mining hardware in a move to support the over-supplied secondhand markets. According to the article, sales of hashing power in China has seen a decrease of around 75% since the Spring. Bitmain is reportedly moving operations abroad as well, which would be a major move for the hardware manufacturing giant.

Mine-ami

Francis Suarez, everyone’s favorite Bitcoin-friendly mayor, was at it again on June 18 when he announced that all Chinese Bitcoin miners were welcome in Miami. The announcement was translated and posted on Sina Finance’s Blockchain Weibo account, which attracted over 53 comments from surprised netizens. Most of these user comments were negative in nature however, both towards Suarez and Bitcoin in general. A large portion of Weibo users hold cryptocurrencies in ill-regard, especially those that have been investing in the stagnant Chinese stock market.

Amber is the color of your energy

Amber, a cryptocurrency service provider based in Hong Kong, completed a Series B funding round worth $100m. Amber is well known among institutions for their financial services that include asset management, OTC services and lending.

Alipay’s foray into NFTs

Top payment processor Alipay continues to push its AntChain technology by partnering with the Dunhuang Research Academy to release 8,000 NFT skins. Dunhuang is famous for being an old silk road outpost and is home to Mogao Caves, a Unesco Heritage site. The NFTs featured artwork inspired by the cultural site and quickly sold out. AntChain is a private blockchain developed by Alibaba’s Ant Group.





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Klaytn death cross debut coincides with a 57% KLAY price pump

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Bids for Klaytn’s native cryptocurrency KLAY spiked on Thursday after the South Korea-based public blockchain project confirmed its listing on Binance, one of the world’s top cryptocurrency exchanges by volume.

The KLAY/USDT exchange rate surged 41.25% to an intraday high of $1.243. The pair’s massive move uphill accompanied a dramatic intraday spike in trade volumes — 28.68 million so far into Thursday versus 13.05 million in the previous session, validating the bullish sentiment across the Klaytn market.

Profit-taking sentiment pushed KLAY prices lower after it reached $1.243. Source: TradingView.com

The gains came on the prospect of Klaytn’s global expansion after its addition on Binance. So far, the option to trade spot KLAY was majorly available across heavily-regulated South Korean exchanges — particularly Bithumb — thanks to Klaytn’s affiliation with the regional internet giant Kakao.  

Binance’s listing would introduce KLAY to wider markets, Klaytn recognized in the official announcement, adding that they would introduce a launchpool through which Binance users can stake Binance Coin (BNB) or Binance USD (BUSD) to farm KLAY tokens.

“With the official introduction of KLAY on Binance, Klaytn expects to accelerate its global expansion, inviting global developers and service providers to participate in its ecosystem.”

The news of Binance-Klaytn partnership came just as KLAY was bouncing off its six-month low level of $0.72. In turn, the rebound followed a 83.45% price crash from KLAY’s mid-April peak of $4.35. As a result, the latest 57% spike from $0.72 to $1.243 did little in taking KLAY out of its prevailing bearish bias.

Atop that, the token painted a death cross on its daily timeframe chart.

KLAY’s 50-day simple moving average is set to cross below its 200-day simple moving average. Source: TradingView.com

In detail, a death cross occurs when an asset’s short-term moving average closes below its long-term moving average. Traders interpret the said crossover as a signal to limit their upside bias in a market and/or increase their bearish bets.

The 50-200 moving average crossover particularly has been proven to be a reliable forecaster of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: in 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008, according to Investopedia.

If past is any signal, the Klaytn token could face further downside corrections once the Binance listing hype settles.

The Bitcoin Factor

Meanwhile, KLAY’s medium-term bias also depends on how Bitcoin (BTC) performs in the coming daily sessions.

The chart below shows how KLAY has erratically tailed Bitcoin price trends in the recent history. For example, both the assets topped out in mid-April with a slight lag. Meanwhile, they recently bottomed out with just a 24-hour difference, hinting that, in the future, they would keep trending hand-in-hand.

Bitcoin and KLAY price trends since the beginning of 2021. Source: TradingView.com

But that is not good news for KLAY.

Oleg Belousov, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency exchange N.Exchange, told Cointelegraph that he expected Bitcoin to fall towards $20,000, citing China’s renewed crackdown on the cryptocurrency sector.

“There are concerns that more countries will follow in China’s footsteps and join the ban, which will cause a further drop in rates,” he said.

Belousov added that Bitcoin still has hopes in countries that are democratic and constitutional, stating that they can’t legally ban cryoto.

Meanwhile, technical chartists said that the recent upside reversal in the Bitcoin market is a signal that the cryptocurrency would move higher. 

If the correlation stands, KLAY could head higher, as well.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.