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‘Shorts will be dead’ — Why Dan Tapiero expects a massive Bitcoin shortage

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In recent months, there has been a considerable spike in institutional demand for Bitcoin (BTC) following several high profile investments. Over time, asset manager and 10T Holdings co-founder Dan Tapiero believes this could lead to a problematic shortage in BTC.

Alongside investments from Square, MicroStrategy and Stone Ridge, Bitcoin inflows to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have surged.

Based on the rapid growth of institutional investments, Tapiero warns that short-sellers could see trouble in the future.

Institutional investors are rushing into Bitcoin

In the third quarter of 2020, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded an inflow of $1.05 billion. This marked the firm’s first billion-dollar quarter and also highlights record-high institutional demand. The firm’s quarterly report reads:

“Grayscale recorded its largest ever quarterly inflows, over $1 billion in 3Q20, making it the third consecutive record-breaking quarter. Year-to-date investment into the Grayscale family of products has surpassed $2.4 billion, more than double the $1.2 billion cumulative inflow into the products from 2013-2019.”

The timing of Grayscale’s record-breaking quarter is noteworthy because it comes several months after BTC price dropped below $3,600.

Cumulative quarterly inflows into Grayscale trusts, including Bitcoin. Source: Grayscale

On March 13, Bitcoin fell $3,600 after a $1 billion worth of futures contracts were liquidated. BTC has steadily recovered ever since, eventually rising above $12,500 in early September.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin surged rapidly after what is now referred to as one of Bitcoin’s steepest falls in recent history and this indicates institutions see staying power. 

Considering the continuous increase in Grayscale inflow from institutional investors, Tapiero said:

“SHORTAGES of Bitcoin possible. Barry’s Grayscale Trust is eating up BTC like there is no tomorrow. If 77% of all newly mined turns into 110%, it’s lights out. Non-miner supply will get held off market in squeeze. Shorts will be dead. Price can go to any number.”

Supply concerns align with the post-halving cycle

The speculation about a potential supply-side crisis around Bitcoin also coincides with the post-halving cycle. Bitcoin went through its third halving on May 11 and historically, halvings lead to extended bull runs in the next two years.

The halvings are proven to have a direct impact on BTC price, especially over the long term as the rate at which the remaining BTC supply is introduced to the market slows down.

Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million and as with each halving the amount of BTC miners can produce decreases. Hence, fewer BTC are available in the market to purchase every four years.

In 2016, it took Bitcoin around 15 months to reach a peak after the second halving. If a similar pattern follows, a year from the most recent halving would be around the third quarter of 2021.

Coincidentally, the current post-halving cycle is being met with unprecedented institutional demand.





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PlanB feeling ‘uneasy’ as 41% of his followers tip $100K BTC won’t happen this year

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PlanB, the brainchild behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, has revealed he is feeling “uneasy” about his renowned price predictions due to the recent downtrend in markets.

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which has predicted BTC prices with some degree of accuracy over the past two years, has been called into question by some of his followers in a recent Twitter poll.

The anonymous analyst surveyed his followers on June 21 asking them what price they thought BTC would reach by the end of the year. He used the results to compare them to a similar survey in March when market sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish.

Of the 124,595 respondents to the latest poll, 41% thought that BTC prices would remain below $100K by the end of the year, which would invalidate the S2F model. That’s two and a half times the 16% in the previous poll who thought the lazer eyes crowd would be disappointed this year.

PlanB who originally published the price predictor in March 2019, pinned a message admitting that even he feels a little “uneasy” when BTC prices deviate from the model. However, the analyst noted that the model had managed to hold previously in March 2019, again in March 2020 when the pandemic caused a global market meltdown, and once more in September 2020.

Preston Pysh, the founder of The Investors Podcast Network, commented that it was difficult for a model to account for a blizzard of bad news that has accelerated the market downturn.

“You mean your model doesn’t account for 40%+ of mining rigs getting banned & forced to turn-off & relocate to various parts of the world…and with no forward notice to companies/entitles for the extraordinary expense to their heavily denominated BTC treasuries/retained earnings.”

The model is a calculation of a ratio based on the existing supply of Bitcoin against how much is entering circulation. The scarcer the asset becomes due to the four-year halving cycles the higher the price. PlanB’s model predicts an average price of $288K over the next three years.

Related: $288K BTC price ‘still in play’ says PlanB as Bloomberg champions Bitcoin halving

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had gained 2.9% over the past 24 hours to trade at $34,450 according to CoinGecko. The asset is currently 45% down from its all-time high of $64,800 on April 14.





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Bitcoin in uptrend but BTC may never beat gold’s $10T market cap — ex-NYSE head

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Bitcoin (BTC) is on a “lower left to upper right trend” and its volatility should not scare investors, the former head of the New York Stock Exchange says.

In an interview with CNBC on June 23, Thomas Farley revealed long-term convictions about Bitcoin and dismissed concerns over BTC price losses.

Bitcoin: Going up, but not “up only”

Coming a day after CNBC pundit Jim Cramer admitted that he sold his Bitcoin stash, suggesting that BTC/USD was going as low as $10,000, Farley provided some much-needed mainstream bullishness.

“With respect to the recent price moves, I’m kind of sanguine about them — Bitcoin’s a very volatile asset class, in part because it’s a new asset class,” he told the network.

“I have no doubt it’ll go up, it’ll go down over the long term — I still think it’s a lower left to upper right trend and I think we’re going to see that play out over five years.”

With mining upheaval coming from China still on everyone’s lips, popular mainstream criticism of Bitcoin’s energy usage was also swiftly cast aside as a temporary issue.

“I think this kerfuffle is an interesting conversation, but by and large I think it’ll be resolved because I think the blockchain at its core adds to its efficiency and in fact will add to energy efficiency over time,” he continued.

Less convinced on gold. vs. Bitcoin

When it comes to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” however, Farley was more conservative in his predictions.

Now firmly beneath a trillion-dollar market cap, Bitcoin must transform in order to take on store-of-value safe-havens.

Related: Joining the ranks: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and stocks is growing

“I think the upper bound for now is gold, which is about a $10 trillion market cap,” he added.

“In order for Bitcoin to one day exceed gold, it’ll have to be more of an accepted form of currency — I’m not sure, frankly, if it ever gets there.”

Proponents argue that Bitcoin, by its very nature, faces just a matter of time before eclipsing gold thanks to the latter’s ultimately infinite supply and inability to beat Bitcoin in all aspects of “money.”

The precious metal saw a major sell-off last week after comments on policy from the United States Federal Reserve.

To beat gold, Bitcoin would need to trade at more than $533,000 with the current supply.