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Why Bitcoin Investors Should Be Concerned

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Today marks the 33rd anniversary of the Black Monday on Wall Street that sent stocks setting historic records for intraday declines. Although this year already had a similar day of its own, there’s reason to believe that another collapse could happen in Bitcoin.

Here are the primary factors behind what could cause the crypto market to drop on the ominous anniversary.

Will Bitcoin Bow To Black Monday Anniversary?

Black Thursday is a day that crypto investors won’t soon forget. In a flash, Bitcoin price plummeted from over $7,000 to under $4,000, after just a few weeks prior trading well above $10,000. The more than 60% fall came to a climax on March 12, 2020.

All markets felt the sting of the panic and mad dash into the safe haven of cash. However, after that day, markets rebounded into a V-shaped recovery. Bitcoin and the S&P 500 set a new high in 2020, but the Dow Jones failed to put in a higher high which could be more foretelling about the overall state of the US economy.

RELATED READING | WHY A “BLUE WAVE” BIDEN WIN COULD BE THE BEST SCENARIO FOR BITCOIN

Although asset valuations across major stock indices and crypto assets are back at, or close to 2020 highs, the uncertainty around the election has investors taking a pause. Analysts and economists claim upside is limited in stocks, and various technical indicators point to a long-term top potentially being put in on the stock market.

Bitcoin following Black Monday price pattern from 1987 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Weakness in stocks and the tech bubble finally popping could cause an anniversary selloff on the 33rd year since the Black Monday collapse in 1987. That day the S&P 500 saw a historic collapse, and it could happen again. According to a chart shared on Reddit, the S&P 500 is closely following the same pattern and price action that led up to that day.

And due to the ongoing correlation between crypto and stocks, even Bitcoin is following this pattern.

Crypto’s Continued Correlation With Stocks Could Spell Disaster

Since Black Thursday, the correlation between the top crypto asset and the most popular stock index in the United States, have traded lock and step. Bitcoin spent its entire life up until this year being positioned as an uncorrelated asset, but overall market sentiment matching across stocks and crypto has the two assets classes matching eerily closely.

RELATED READING | EXPERT EXPECTS BITCOIN “DECOUPLING” FROM STOCKS BUT NOT FOR THE REASON YOU THINK

Because Bitcoin remains so tightly correlated to the S&P 500, any steep selloff in stocks, either today on the dark day’s anniversary or in the near future, the cryptocurrency could also be in trouble again.

btcusd spx bitcoin sp 500

Cryptocurrency's sudden correlation with the S&P 500 stock market index | Source: SPX on TradingView.com

Top crypto fundamental experts claim that Bitcoin will soon decouple from stocks due to the growth of the underlying network. Fundamentally, Bitcoin has never been stronger than before, while stocks are fundamentally at their weakest in years due to the current economic conditions.

If stocks do collapse and Bitcoin withstands, the decoupling could lead to stock market capital flowing into crypto, and further push the asset to never before believed heights.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, charts from TradingView.com



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Bitcoin price bounces to $33K but analysts say ‘it’s too early’ to call a bottom

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Cryptocurrency investors found little reprieve on June 22 as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $30,000 for the first time since January, sparking panic among less experienced market participants who have yet to experience a full market cycle. 

While Bitcoin has been under increasing pressure from multiple sources since early May, the most recent bout of selling has been largely attributed to capitulation by China-based miners who have been forced to abruptly shut down their operations.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after dropping to $28,800, Bitcoin price bounced back above the $30,000 level and currently trades for $32,600.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The strong bounce came after comments from Brian Nelson, the current nominee for Under Secretary of the Department of the Treasury’s division on terrorism and financial crimes. Nelson said he was going to make the implementation of new regulations around cryptocurrency a priority if he is confirmed.

Miner crackdown in China sparks market turmoil

The pressures put on Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market was highlighted by Élie Le Rest, partner at digital asset management firm ExoAlpha. Le Rest told Cointelegraph that “Chinese market participants have been massively selling during the past month.”

Le Rest also pointed to the “Grayscale unlocking schedule leading to more selling pressure,” resulting in some panic selling by the less experienced traders in the market.

Le Rest said,

“With newcomers in the crypto market seeing their profit and capital getting wipe out by selling waves, newcomers are taking their loss as they can’t stomach this much negative volatility anymore.”

Due to these pressures, Le Rest believes that the market could range in the “lower tranches of $25,000 to $35,000” in July, with the low volume usually seen in August having the potential to “accelerate this downside trend or build the upside trend.”

The upside case for today’s move was provided by David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer of ExoAlpha, who stated that the activity seen in the market on June 22 “seems to have drawn the line in the sand for BTC at $29,000 and Ether (ETH) at $1,700, given the swift bounce.”

Related: Bad call? Bitfinex bears closed a block of Bitcoin shorts before the drop below $32K

That being said, Lifchitz warns against throwing caution to the wind as the volatile nature of the crypto market makes picking a bottom notoriously challenging.

Lifchitz said:

“However, it’s too early to tell if this is “the” bottom or just a temporary floor before more downside. The lack of any upside catalyst (besides some contrarian oversold metrics) remains the biggest hurdle for cryptos to bounce back… Paging Mr.Musk, paging Mr.Musk.”

Altcoins see double-digit losses

The altcoin market followed Bitcoin’s lead on June 22 with a majority of tokens seeing double-digit losses as traders ran for the safety of stablecoins.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The price of Ether managed to rebound along with the price of BTC, helping erase a 15% correction and send the price back above $1,900.

Two tokens that managed to rise above the market turmoil and see positive gains for the day were Livepeer (LPT), which posted a 15% gain and Celo (CELO), which saw its price increase by 9%.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.303 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 47.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.