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Nearly 99% Of Bitcoin Ownership Has Been Profitable, Data Reveals

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Bitcoin is the best-performing mainstream asset in 2020, next to stocks, gold, and anything else. But according to new data, owning the top crypto asset by market cap at any point in nearly 99% of its existence would have resulted in profitability. Here’s how high the price of Bitcoin will need to reach before it reaches 100% profitability once again and what that will mean for the crypto market.

Buying Bitcoin Has Been Profitable, Nearly 99% Of The Time Data Shows

The first-ever cryptocurrency has, as analysts expected, thus far been a primary beneficiary of the post-pandemic world. The all-digital, ultra-scarce asset has beaten gold, soaring stock valuations, and anything else aside from less liquid altcoin cousins.

In just ten years, it has performed over 100,000,000% in ROI, leaving only 1.5% of days unprofitable in its existence remaining. Currently, there’s only one single day in 2020 that buying Bitcoin was unprofitable,. And with the cryptocurrency only trading $20 or so below the 2020 high – by the time this is published another few days could be knocked off the chart, and the closer to 99%.

Days profitable in Bitcoin | Source: LookIntoBitcoin.com

According to LookIntoBitcoin charts, there have been 3663 profitable days holding BTC, out of a total of 3718 days. This represents 98.5% of Bitcoin’s entire lifecycle thus far.

With less than two months worth of unprofitable price action to overtake, 100% might not be that far away.

What Will It Take To Return To 100% Positive ROI In Crypto?

According to Bitstamp’s BTCUSD price action from TradingView.com, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap truly spent more like 43 days above the current price level, with just a handful or two worth of wicks or one-day candle closes above it.

During those short spikes, anyone who was sucked into the peak Bitcoin FOMO is still stuck at a loss, either continuing to hold until that changes or having sold somewhere along the way.

bitcoin btcusd profitable days

Target for crypto to be profitable  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Even fewer days have been spent above $13,800 where the 2019 top was set. If Bitcoin can beat its current 2020 high of $12,466, then the next likely target would be retesting the 2019 high.

The cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum could take out that resistance level this time with ease, instead, sending it to the next pit stop at around $16,500. Bitcoin has spent only a handful of days above this level. Beyond there, there’s the former all-time high of $20,000.

Above that level, Bitcoin will return to full 100% profitability, and back to price discovery. Where it eventually finds its next peak, will be the talk of the next year or more until that day comes.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Chart from Look Into Bitcoin and TradingView.com



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Bitcoin

Bitcoin may lose $30K price level if stocks tank, analysts warn

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The ghost of stock market crash is back again to haunt Bitcoin (BTC).

It happened last in March 2020. Back then, the prospect of the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic led to lockdowns across developed and emerging economies. In turn, global stocks crashed in tandem, and Bitcoin lost half of its value in just two days.

Meanwhile, the U.S .dollar index, or DXY, which represents the greenback’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, has now climbed by 8.78% to 102.992, its highest level since January 2017.

The huge inverse correlation showed that investors dumped their stocks and Bitcoin holdings and sought safety in what they thought was a better haven: the greenback. 

More than a year later, Bitcoin and stock markets again wrestle with a similar bearish sentiment, this time led by a renewed demand for the U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone.

Namely, the U.S. central bank announced Wednesday it will start hiking its benchmark interest rates by the end of 2023, a year earlier than planned.

Lower interest rates helped to pull Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market out of their bearish slumber. The benchmark cryptocurrency jumped from $3,858 in March 2020 to almost $65,000 in April 2021 as the Fed pushed lending rates to the 0%-0.25% range.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index rose more than 95% to 4,257.16 from its mid-March 2020 peak. Dow Jones and Nasdaq rallied similarly, as shown in the chart below.

Bitcoin, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones rose in sync after March 2020 crash. Source: TradingView.com

And this is what happened after the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike announcement on Wednesday…

Bitcoin and the US stock market plunged after the Fed’s rate hike update. Source: TradingView.com

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index jumped to its two-month high, hinting at a renewed appetite for the greenback in global markets.

U.S. dollar index jumped up to 2.06% after rate hike announcement. Source: TradingView.com

Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo said on Friday that a stock market crash coupled with a rising dollar could increase Bitcoin’s bearish outlook. 

“Some downside risk if stonks tank, a lot of rallying in the DXY (USD strength) which is typical of money moving to safety,” he explained. 

Michael Burry, the head of Scion Asset Management, also sounded the alarm on an imminent Bitcoin and stock market crash, adding that when crypto markets fall from trillions, or when meme stocks fall from billions, the Main Street losses will approach the size of countries.

“The problem with crypto, as in most things, is the leverage,” he tweeted. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in crypto, you don’t know anything about crypto.”

Burry deleted his tweets later.

Some bullish hopes

Away from the price action, Bitcoin’s adoption continues to grow, an upside catalyst that was missing during the March 2020 crash.

On Friday, CNBC reported that Goldman Sachs has started trading Bitcoin Futures with Galaxy Digital, a crypto merchant bank headed by former hedge fund tycoon Mike Novogratz. The financial news service claimed that Goldman’s call to hire Galaxy as its liquidity provider came in response to increasing pressure from its wealthy clients.

Related: Hawkish Fed comments push Bitcoin price and stocks lower again

Damien Vanderwilt, co-president of Galaxy Digital, added that the mainstream adoption would help Bitcoin lower its infamous price volatility, paving the way for institutional players to join the crypto bandwagon. Excerpts from his interview with CNBC:

“Once one bank is out there doing this, the other banks will have [fear of missing out] and they’ll get on-boarded because their clients have been asking for it.”

Earlier, other major financial and banking services, including Morgan Stanley, PayPal, and Bank of New York Mellon, also launched crypto-enabled services for their clients.

Is Bitcoin in a bear market? 

Referring to the question “are we in a bear market?” Woo said that Bitcoin adoption continues to look healthy despite the recent price drop. The analyst cited on-chain indicators to show an increasing user growth and capital injection in the Bitcoin market.

He also noted that the recent Bitcoin sell-off merely transported BTC from weak hands to strong hands. 

7-day moving average of coins moving between strong and weak hands. Source: Willy Woo

Woo reminded:

“My only concern for downside risk is if we get a major correction in equities which will pull BTC price downwards no matter what the on-chain fundamentals may suggest. Noticing USD strength on the DXY, which suggest some investors moving to safety in the USD.”