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Bitcoin is Sucking Liquidity Out of Every Major Market, Charts Show

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On Wednesday, Bitcoin evangelist and Wall Street investor Raoul Pal published a series of charts that pitted the cryptocurrency against major financial markets.

Every graph appeared identical to one another, for they showed how the mainstream assets/indexes were trending lower against Bitcoin, to a point where they all tested a medium-term support trendline. They included gold, the Nasdaq Composite, and its sub-indexes/stocks, which include KBW Bank Index, Treasury Bond ETF Fund, silver, Amazon stock, and others.

Gold is looking to attempt a negative breakout against Bitcoin once it closes below the rising trendline support. Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Mr. Pal noted that every index/asset was looking to break bearish on the support trendline. The prediction pointed towards more strength for Bitcoin as it compared the crypto with a “supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it.”

“You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin,” Mr. Pal added. “And gold investors will flip to BTC. The Nasdaq is next. Retail specs are going to flip to bitcoin as it eats techs lunch.”

nasdaq, nasdaq composite, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, btcusd, ndx

Like gold, Nasdaq is also looking to break lower against Bitcoin. Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Weaker Sub-indexes

Some of the Nasdaq’s sub-indexes already broke below the Ascending Trendline support. The KBW Bank Index (NASDAQ: BKX), a benchmark stock index of the banking sector, fell to its lowest levels against Bitcoin as worries over an increase in loan defaults stressed the financial corporations.

Read Further: 3 Biggest Bitcoin Takeaways from JPMorgan’s Q3 Earnings

Furthermore, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ: TLT) depreciated against the rising Bitcoin prices, adding to the speculation that the US economy is heading for a prolonged period of lower interest rates. The Federal Reserve has already committed to keeping them near-zero up until 2023.

us bonds, TLT US Equity, iShares 20+ Treasury Bonds, Bitcoin

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF dips against Bitcoin. Source: Bloomberg Terminal

The analogy was the same for the G4 Central Bank Balance sheet, the Refinitiv/CoreCommodity CRB Index, and Apple. Everything fell against Bitcoin.

“The macro, flows, technology, demography and societal strains have all converged to this moment in time and the definite answer from markets is Bitcoin,” wrote Mr. Pal. “I get this sounds a little evangelical but I’m struggling to see it any other way right now.”

Bitcoin to $20,000

As money keeps flowing into the Bitcoin market, Mr. Pal also indicated that the cryptocurrency could soon swell back to its previous record high of $20,000.

cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, BTCUSD, XBTUSD, BTCUSDT, Bitcoin Dominance

A break above the $14K level puts Bitcoin en route to $20K, as per Raoul Pal. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

As per Mr. Pal, there is not any historically concrete resistance level above $14,000.

Earlier in 2017, it took BTC/USD only a week to pump from lower $13,000s to as high as $19,891 on Coinbase exchange. While the rally mostly took its cues from the infamous ICO boom, it left little hints for technical chartists to pick their ideal long targets on the next breakout above $14,000.

“I fully expect new all-time highs by early next year at the latest,” Mr. Pal predicted, nevertheless.





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Bitcoin derivatives data shows pro traders ignored today’s $41K pump

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Sometimes all Bitcoin (BTC) needs to pump 10% is a positive remark from someone like Elon Musk.

The Tesla CEO has been pointed to as the culprit for the recent downturn after the company’s May 12 announcement explaining that it would no longer accept Bitcoin payments due to environmental concerns. Musk followed up by saying that he was looking into other cryptocurrencies that required 99% less energy consumption. 

However, on June 13, the situation reversed as Musk reassured the public that Tesla did not sell any additional Bitcoin. The post also said that the electric-car producer would resume taking BTC payments as soon as its Bitcoin mining relied on a minimum of 50% clean energy.

In bear markets, top traders act with caution

While retail investors and algorithmic trading bots jump into action as soon as bullish or bearish signals and news flash, top traders tend to act more with more caution. Those who have been around the crypto markets long enough know that positive news might end up being ignored or severely downplayed in bear markets.

On the other hand, even potentially negative news seems to have little to no impact during bull runs. For example, on Sept. 26, 2020, Kucoin was hacked for $150 million. The following week, on Oct. 1, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged BitMEX for operating an unregistered trading platform and violating Anti-Money Laundering regulations.

Two weeks later, police reportedly questioned the founder of OKEx, forcing the exchange to suspend crypto withdrawals. Had this series of negative news happened while Bitcoin was flat or in a bearish phase, the price would have undoubtedly have stalled during a bear market.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase in USD, Sept. 2020. Source: TradingView

As shown above, Bitcoin barely had any negative impact in late September and October 2020. In fact, by the end of November 2020, Bitcoin was up 74% in two months. This is the main reason why top traders tend to ignore positive news during bear markets and vice-versa.

The 3-month futures premium is neutral

A futures contract seller will usually demand a price premium to regular spot exchanges. This situation is not exclusive to crypto markets and happens in every derivatives market because in addition to the exchange liquidity risk, the seller is postponing settlement and this results in a higher price.

The 3-month futures premium (basis rate) usually trades at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets. When futures are trading below the regular spot exchange price, it signals a short-term bearish sentiment.

Huobi 3-month Bitcoin futures basis. Source: Skew

As shown above, the future basis has been below 11% since May 20 and flirting with bearish territory on multiple occasions as it tested 5%. The current level indicates a neutral position from top traders.

The options skew is no longer signaling fear

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options side-by-side. It will turn positive when the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when market makers are bullish and this causes the 25% delta skew indicator to enter the negative range.

Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

The above chart confirms that top traders, including arbitrage desks and market markers, are currently uncomfortable with Bitcoin price as the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher. However, the current 7% positive skew is far from the 20% exaggerated fear seen in late May.

Derivatives markets show no evidence of top traders getting excited about the recent $40,000 hike. On the bright side, there is room for leverage buyers to mount positions. Stronger upswings usually occur when investors are least expecting, and the current scenario seems to be a perfect example.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.