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Analyst Expects Bitcoin Retrace to $12,000 as Powerful Uptrend Stalls

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  • Bitcoin has flashed some immense signs of strength throughout the past few hours, once again pushing up towards $16,000
  • Bulls appear to be gearing up for another test of this crucial resistance level
  • If rejected here, this level could be confirmed as a mid-term top that is followed by immense downside
  • A break above this level, however, would but a move to its all-time highs on the table
  • One analyst is noting that he is now looking to regain exposure to BTC after taking some profits, stating that he expects a sharp retrace
  • This potential retrace could cut as deep as $12,000, according to a chart he put forth

Bitcoin and the aggregated crypto market are continuing to flash signs of strength as buyers gain control over the entire market.

Even altcoins have been catching up to BTC as of late, signaling that the aggregated market is finally beginning to reap the rewards of the benchmark cryptocurrency’s recent rally.

That said, Bitcoin has been struggling to break above $16,000. This level has held strong as resistance on multiple occasions.

One analyst is noting that he is watching for a sharp retrace before he adds to his positions. His chart indicates that this retrace could cut as deep as the $12,000 region.

Bitcoin Struggles to Break $16,000 Despite Buyers’ Strength

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up just under 2% at its current price of $15,590. This is around the price at which it has been trading throughout the past week.

A few days ago, however, it faced a sudden influx of selling pressure that sent its price reeling as low as $14,800. It has pushed higher from here, signaling that this is a support region.

Because BTC’s recent price action has lacked conviction on both sides, it remains unclear what will break its consolidation pattern within the $15,000 region.

Analyst: BTC Could Retrace as Low as $12,000 Before Rebounding

One analyst recently offered a somewhat grim short-term outlook on the cryptocurrency, noting that he is waiting for a strong retrace before moving to regain exposure.

He stated that his orders are set within the $12,000 region, although he would be willing to move them to $14,000 if Bitcoin’s support here holds.

“After capitalizing on some profit in BTC I find myself on the prowl for a reentry. Orders are set in the green box in case there’s a sharp move to test prior resistance for support. If price pulls back to $14k without filling the orders I’ll use emasar to adjust accordingly.”

Image Courtesy of Tyler D. Coates. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

The coming few days should provide investors with insights into whether this ongoing consolidation phase will persist.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.





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PlanB feeling ‘uneasy’ as 41% of his followers tip $100K BTC won’t happen this year

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PlanB, the brainchild behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, has revealed he is feeling “uneasy” about his renowned price predictions due to the recent downtrend in markets.

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which has predicted BTC prices with some degree of accuracy over the past two years, has been called into question by some of his followers in a recent Twitter poll.

The anonymous analyst surveyed his followers on June 21 asking them what price they thought BTC would reach by the end of the year. He used the results to compare them to a similar survey in March when market sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish.

Of the 124,595 respondents to the latest poll, 41% thought that BTC prices would remain below $100K by the end of the year, which would invalidate the S2F model. That’s two and a half times the 16% in the previous poll who thought the lazer eyes crowd would be disappointed this year.

PlanB who originally published the price predictor in March 2019, pinned a message admitting that even he feels a little “uneasy” when BTC prices deviate from the model. However, the analyst noted that the model had managed to hold previously in March 2019, again in March 2020 when the pandemic caused a global market meltdown, and once more in September 2020.

Preston Pysh, the founder of The Investors Podcast Network, commented that it was difficult for a model to account for a blizzard of bad news that has accelerated the market downturn.

“You mean your model doesn’t account for 40%+ of mining rigs getting banned & forced to turn-off & relocate to various parts of the world…and with no forward notice to companies/entitles for the extraordinary expense to their heavily denominated BTC treasuries/retained earnings.”

The model is a calculation of a ratio based on the existing supply of Bitcoin against how much is entering circulation. The scarcer the asset becomes due to the four-year halving cycles the higher the price. PlanB’s model predicts an average price of $288K over the next three years.

Related: $288K BTC price ‘still in play’ says PlanB as Bloomberg champions Bitcoin halving

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had gained 2.9% over the past 24 hours to trade at $34,450 according to CoinGecko. The asset is currently 45% down from its all-time high of $64,800 on April 14.





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Bitcoin in uptrend but BTC may never beat gold’s $10T market cap — ex-NYSE head

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Bitcoin (BTC) is on a “lower left to upper right trend” and its volatility should not scare investors, the former head of the New York Stock Exchange says.

In an interview with CNBC on June 23, Thomas Farley revealed long-term convictions about Bitcoin and dismissed concerns over BTC price losses.

Bitcoin: Going up, but not “up only”

Coming a day after CNBC pundit Jim Cramer admitted that he sold his Bitcoin stash, suggesting that BTC/USD was going as low as $10,000, Farley provided some much-needed mainstream bullishness.

“With respect to the recent price moves, I’m kind of sanguine about them — Bitcoin’s a very volatile asset class, in part because it’s a new asset class,” he told the network.

“I have no doubt it’ll go up, it’ll go down over the long term — I still think it’s a lower left to upper right trend and I think we’re going to see that play out over five years.”

With mining upheaval coming from China still on everyone’s lips, popular mainstream criticism of Bitcoin’s energy usage was also swiftly cast aside as a temporary issue.

“I think this kerfuffle is an interesting conversation, but by and large I think it’ll be resolved because I think the blockchain at its core adds to its efficiency and in fact will add to energy efficiency over time,” he continued.

Less convinced on gold. vs. Bitcoin

When it comes to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” however, Farley was more conservative in his predictions.

Now firmly beneath a trillion-dollar market cap, Bitcoin must transform in order to take on store-of-value safe-havens.

Related: Joining the ranks: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and stocks is growing

“I think the upper bound for now is gold, which is about a $10 trillion market cap,” he added.

“In order for Bitcoin to one day exceed gold, it’ll have to be more of an accepted form of currency — I’m not sure, frankly, if it ever gets there.”

Proponents argue that Bitcoin, by its very nature, faces just a matter of time before eclipsing gold thanks to the latter’s ultimately infinite supply and inability to beat Bitcoin in all aspects of “money.”

The precious metal saw a major sell-off last week after comments on policy from the United States Federal Reserve.

To beat gold, Bitcoin would need to trade at more than $533,000 with the current supply.