Connect with us

Bitcoin

Friday The 13th: How Superstition Could Impact Bitcoin Trend Changes

Published

on



Today is Friday the 13th and only the second occurrence of the eerie date in what has been a cataclysmic year. As the clock turned to the new day, Bitcoin price action retreated slightly for the first time in weeks.

Do the two things have anything to do with one another? We’ve analyzed past instances of the superstitious date to see if there has been any impact on the cryptocurrency, and there is some surprising correlation. Check out how Friday the 13th could affect Bitcoin today and for the rest of the calendar year.

A Brief History About Friday The 13th And How It Could Impact Crypto Markets

With Halloween less than two weeks ago, “Friday the 13th” might bring up memories of the 1980s slasher film about the hockey mask-wearing Jason Voorhees. But the superstitions related to the date potentially dates back to the middle ages.

One origin story references Norse mythology and a scenario where 12 gods got together in Valhalla when an uninvited 13th guest showed up – the Norse god Loki – and caused mischief.

RELATED READING | OWNING BITCOIN “IS A MUST” SAYS PRICE OF TOMORROW AUTHOR, JEFF BOOTH

Other potential sources of origin include references to Jesus and Christianity, the Knights Templar, and even a 1907 novel entitled “Friday, the Thirteenth,” in which a stock market broker used the superstition to cause panic on Wall Street.

With a novel written on how the date could impact markets, could there actually be more to the superstition, as Bitcoin takes a pause for the first time in nearly two months of powerful upside? Interestingly, the daily candle thus far has formed a doji, which signals “indecision” in the market. Could investors be spooked or feeling uncertain, with the superstitious day rolling around? Or is the number 13 really that unlucky?

A red doji candle forming at the top of a rally on Friday the 13th seems suspicious | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Could A Bitcoin Trend Change Begin With The Unlucky Day?

People often find strong symbolism in numbers. 13 is considered especially unlucky, but lucky for others. Many buildings are erected without a 13th floor. The next time you step into an elevator, check for yourself.

Triskaidekaphobia is the scientific name for the fear and avoidance of the number 13. That’s how significant this number can be for some. The name for the fear of the Friday the 13th date itself is called paraskevidekatriaphobia.

With real, diagnosed fears of the number 13, and substantial superstition in media be enough to potentially influence the masses? It’s possible, and the Bitcoin price chart reflects this theory also.

bitcoin friday the 13th history

Past Friday the 13th were at major pivot points, including the day after Black Thursday | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Three out of the last four Friday the 13th dates have been added to the chart above, with the prior two acting as a pivot point for a trend change. The most recent Friday the 13th was the day after Black Thursday, and the day Bitcoin began its recovery to $16,000.

RELATED READING | DEUTSCHE BANK WARNS OF DISASTER WORSE THAN PANDEMIC THAT COULD COMPLETELY KILL BITCOIN

With another Friday the 13th today, happening at the top of a rally that first began at the last Friday the 13th, could this be a possible short-term reversal in Bitcoin? In 2021, there is only one Friday the 13th, and that’s in August. Mark your calendars, and keep watch to see if there was any change in the trend stemming from today, and use the unlucky superstition to your advantage in the future if you can.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com



Source link

Bitcoin

Bad call? Bitfinex bears closed a block of Bitcoin shorts before the drop below $32K

Published

on

By


Bitcoin price is still in a rut, trading near $33,000 and trapped in a downtrend that just seems to get worse with the passing of each day. As the price slumps, analysts have consulted with several technical and on-chain metrics to explain the price collapse, but none of these have picked up on the exact reason. 

One area of interest has been the sharp rise in short positions at Bitfinex in the past week. Traders are placing exaggerated importance on these Bitcoin (BTC) margin shorts as if they are predictors of the current market crash. Still, as Cointelegraph previously reported, analysts forget that Bitcoin margin longs are usually much larger.

On June 18, longs outnumbered Bitfinex shorts by at least 22,800 BTC, but 87% of the short positions were closed before June 22. Currently, margin longs are 43,850 BTC higher than the amount shorted.

While those shorts are usually savvy traders, it is unlikely that they knew in advance that Chinese banks would prevent their clients from engaging in activities involving crypto trading or mining.

More importantly, these bearish positions were built while MicroStrategy was buying $500 million in Bitcoin after a successful senior secured note private offer. To make things worse, Michael Saylor’s business intelligence firm announced the intention to raise another $1 billion by selling stocks to buy Bitcoin.

Let’s take a look at how these courageous shorts fared.

Bitfinex margin shorts (blue) vs. Bitcoin price in USD (orange). Source: TradingView

On June 6, shorts increased from 1,380 to 6,700 at an average price of $36,150. Three days later, another 12,180 shorts were added when Bitcoin was trading at $37,050. Lastly, between June 14 and 15, shorts increased 6,000 to a 25,000 peak while Bitcoin averaged $40,100.

By looking at the Bitcoin prices when those short position increases took place, it is reasonable to assume that the 23,500 contract increase (green circles) had an average price of $37,625.

Related: Traders search for bearish signals after Bitcoin futures enter backwardation

Traders closed positions before BTC crashed bel$32,000

These short positions were steadily closed over the past three days when Bitcoin was already trading below $37,000. However, 17,000 short contracts had already been closed by the time the price plunged below $33,500. Therefore, it is implausible that the average price was below $34,500.

No one would complain about gaining 8%, shorting the market to generate a $73 million profit. However, it is essential to note that on June 16, when Bitcoin reached $40,400, these shorts were underwater by $65 million.

This analysis shows how even highly professional traders can go deep underwater. There’s no way to know if this trade would have been profitable had the crackdown on China not aggravated Bitcoin price or if MicroStrategy managed to raise the $1 billion before the price drop.

If anyone still believes in market manipulation, at least there’s comfort in knowing that pro traders can face drastic losses as well. However, unlike us mortals, whales have deep pockets and patience to withhold even the most rigorous thunderstorms.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.