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PlanB feeling ‘uneasy’ as 41% of his followers tip $100K BTC won’t happen this year



PlanB, the brainchild behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, has revealed he is feeling “uneasy” about his renowned price predictions due to the recent downtrend in markets.

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which has predicted BTC prices with some degree of accuracy over the past two years, has been called into question by some of his followers in a recent Twitter poll.

The anonymous analyst surveyed his followers on June 21 asking them what price they thought BTC would reach by the end of the year. He used the results to compare them to a similar survey in March when market sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish.

Of the 124,595 respondents to the latest poll, 41% thought that BTC prices would remain below $100K by the end of the year, which would invalidate the S2F model. That’s two and a half times the 16% in the previous poll who thought the lazer eyes crowd would be disappointed this year.

PlanB who originally published the price predictor in March 2019, pinned a message admitting that even he feels a little “uneasy” when BTC prices deviate from the model. However, the analyst noted that the model had managed to hold previously in March 2019, again in March 2020 when the pandemic caused a global market meltdown, and once more in September 2020.

Preston Pysh, the founder of The Investors Podcast Network, commented that it was difficult for a model to account for a blizzard of bad news that has accelerated the market downturn.

“You mean your model doesn’t account for 40%+ of mining rigs getting banned & forced to turn-off & relocate to various parts of the world…and with no forward notice to companies/entitles for the extraordinary expense to their heavily denominated BTC treasuries/retained earnings.”

The model is a calculation of a ratio based on the existing supply of Bitcoin against how much is entering circulation. The scarcer the asset becomes due to the four-year halving cycles the higher the price. PlanB’s model predicts an average price of $288K over the next three years.

Related: $288K BTC price ‘still in play’ says PlanB as Bloomberg champions Bitcoin halving

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had gained 2.9% over the past 24 hours to trade at $34,450 according to CoinGecko. The asset is currently 45% down from its all-time high of $64,800 on April 14.

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Ethereum eyes 3-week winning streak vs. Bitcoin as BTC price drifts below $39K




Bitcoin (BTC) headed lower on Aug. 5 after an attempt to reclaim $40,000 failed to garner buyer support.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Accumulation recalls October 2020

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to local lows of $38,700 on Bitstamp, down around 1.5% in several hours.

The largest cryptocurrency had benefited considerably from remarks by Gary Gensler, the new Chair of United States regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tuesday, but momentum stalled at the psychologically significant $40,000 mark.

Thursday’s dip took away the prospect of flipping the 21-week exponential moving average, (EMA), one of several eyed by analysts this week, as firm new support.

Meanwhile, on-chain indicators once again contrasted with middling BTC price action. In particular, Thursday revealed the extent of long-term holder (LTH) Bitcoin accumulation, this reaching new all-time highs: more of the BTC supply was now in the hands of LTHs than ever before.

“Previous bull markets were triggered when LTH supply reached between 63.6% and 71.5% although often after many months at these levels,” Glassnode, which produced the data, added in comments.

“LTHs currently hold 66% of the $BTC supply.”

Proportional long- and short-term holder supply chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

Traders bullish on Ethereum after hard fork

On altcoins, Ether (ETH) dominated the conversation amid bullish forecasts for fresh price gains.

Related: Altcoins and DeFi tokens push higher as Bitcoin price falters at $40K

Ethereum’s token could reach new local highs in the coming months after its latest successful hard fork, analysts forecast as strength against Bitcoin continued.

ETH/BTC hit 0.0693 on Aug. 4, the date of the hard fork deployment — its highest in nearly two months. 

A local resistance point, the 0.07 BTC level has yet to reappear since the Bitcoin-inspired market drawdown began in May.

Nonetheless, among altcoins, ETH has exhibited notable strength against Bitcoin, and its hard fork, London, referred to as EIP-1559, should catalyze performance further.

For the short term, however, a chance to consolidate recent gains is on the cards, say traders.

“I’m expecting a short-term top to be happening tomorrow on ETH,” Cointelegraph contributor Michael van de Poppe told Twitter followers Wednesday. 

“Healthy correction after EIP-1559 before the heaviest bull run of them all happens.”

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView